Two lenses measure the same HYPE token, changing only the denominator. The equity lens (Mcap/Revenue) uses ~240M circulating supply; the token lens (FDV/Revenue) uses ~909M effective supply (1B max less 91M already burned). At a $59 reference price, HYPE trades at ~17x on the equity lens and ~64x on the token lens.
Two lenses, two targets
On the equity lens, today's ~17x comes from $59 x 240M / $0.844B (numerator $14.2B); on the token lens, today's ~64x comes from $59 x 909M / $0.844B (numerator $53.6B). For orientation, comparable multiples run at Robinhood ~37x P/E, CME ~24x, Nvidia ~41x and ICE ~28x. Fintrender's modeling frames two targets on the token lens at a 30x multiple: a base case of $63 ($1.7B revenue x 30x FDV, a mature growth premium, +7% vs today) and a migration case of $110 ($3.0B revenue x 30x FDV, TradFi thesis active, +86% vs today). Both apply the active Foundation proposal projecting ~96% of future revenue as additional burn through the Assistance Fund flywheel, with 91M HYPE already treated as burned today.
Key findings
- At a $59 reference price, HYPE trades at ~17x on the equity lens (Mcap/Rev) and ~64x on the token lens (FDV/Rev).
- Base case: a $63 target price, from $1.7B revenue at a 30x FDV multiple — +7% versus today.
- Migration case: a $110 target price, from $3.0B revenue at 30x FDV with the TradFi thesis active — +86% versus today.