A case for AAVE, told in ten charts. The protocol won; the token didn't, until a governance war routed 100% of revenue to the DAO. The whole case fits in one question: is that revenue large enough, and the structure durable enough, to own it through the token.
From borrower interest to token
Aave is the largest lending venue in DeFi with a near-spotless risk record, but for most of its life the token captured almost none of it. A contested 2025-26 governance war changed that: the 'Aave Will Win' framework now routes 100% of protocol and GHO revenue to the DAO and converts it through a buyback. Two filters dominate the funnel: from ~$1.1B of borrower interest, the ~13% take rate leaves $62-142M of protocol revenue, and then a discretionary buyback the DAO sizes at will (cut from $50M to ~$30M in March 2026) delivers ~$30M to the token. The catch is a base that fell ~25% from peak and was halved by an April 2026 crisis, and an immutable buyback (Aavenomics 3.0) that is previewed, not built.
Key findings
- Protocol revenue runs at $62-142M, the ~2x range that governs the case, and 100% of it is now routed to the DAO via buyback (since April 2026).
- Aave keeps only ~13% of borrower interest as protocol revenue; the other ~87% is depositor yield.
- Market cap is $1.49B with FDV ~$1.51B and ~95% circulating (16M cap), so there is almost no overhang; net TVL peaked at $30.25B (Nov 2025) before the 18 Apr 2026 rsETH event cut it from $26.4B to ~$20B in a day.