A MODEL · NOT A READING
If this holds
three numbers, one float
Every other page under PONS is read from the chain and is wrong only if the chain is. This one is not read from anywhere: it is arithmetic on three numbers you choose. Set the revenue, the share of it that buys and burns, and a price — then see what that does to the float over a week, a month and a year.
$800,000 a day buys and burns 1,047,120 PONS$544,048,038 market cap now
| 1 week | 1 month | 1 year | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burned | $5,600,000 | $24,000,000 | $292,000,000 |
| Tokens | 7.3M | 31.4M | 382.2M |
| Of today's market cap | 1.0% | 4.4% | 53.7% |
| Float left | 704.8M | 680.7M | 329.9M |
| Forward rate on that float | 54% | 56% | 116% |
| Price to hold today's market cap | $0.772 | $0.799 | $1.649 |
The share of TODAY'S float burned grows in a straight line — at a fixed price the same dollars buy the same tokens every day. What climbs is the rate against what is left: 54% a year against the float today, 116% against the float a year from now.
The last row is an identity, not a target: with a smaller float, the same market cap has to sit on fewer tokens. At these settings that is $0.764 today and $1.649 in a year — 2.16x — and it says nothing about whether the price will get there. It is also an UPPER bound, because the burn above it was priced at a fixed $0.764: if the price actually climbed on the way, the same dollars would buy fewer tokens, less float would go, and the price needed to hold the cap would be lower than this.
A quarter of the float or more inside a year is the point where holding the price still stops being a simplification and starts being the answer. Buying that hard against a shrinking float is exactly the condition under which a price does not sit still. Read this as a sensitivity, not a forecast.
At this rate the entire float is gone in 681 days.
float and market cap from the collection of 2026-09-07